Breeders Cup Classic Race & Pace Analysis

Breeders' Cup Classic

When the 2005 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships take place on October 29, Saturday, champion horses from all over North America and as far as Europe and Japan will be pitted against one another. Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, which has the world's biggest dirt race course of any thoroughbred track, will play host to eight major races on a single championship day card: Breeders' Cup Classic, Distaff, Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Sprint, Turf. Breeders' Cup Classic race and pace analysis point to strong contenders being Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, Borrego, Commentator, Flower Alley, Lava Man, Perfect Drift, Rock Hard Ten, Roman Ruler, Saint Liam, and Surf Cat.

The Breeders' Cup Classic is so named for a reason. Of the eight races on the championship day card, the Classic has all the ingredients of, well, a classic: Horse of the Year considerations, a stacked field, and an ambiguous pace scenario, to name a few. Look at race contenders with strong speed scores, and study their running styles in past performances. Some will be close stalkers, others will rate. Race contenders would do well not to tear it up on the front end too early. A deeper closer is a possible winner, although the pace scenario is less than perfect for this. Expect respectable fractions to be set, but nothing crazy fast.

2004 Classic champion Ghostzapper has a nice stalking style that keeps him well placed throughout in a race like the Classic. He would tend to make a last-to-first effort, coming from farther back and staying close to the lead. Coming in a favorite for last year's race, Ghostzapper has shown speed in his wins, including victories by large, widening margins. 2004 Classic runnerup Roses in May has strong speed scores, including a lot of early speed that makes him part o the pace scenario, and although he could not stay with the champ in the upper stretch, he continued on well to clearly best the others.

2003 Classic champion Pleasantly Perfect, who placed third in 2004, has owned the distance for two years and always runs his race that his loss is often not his own failure but another horse's excelling over him. 2005's returning top contender Perfect Drift, who placed fourth last year, has a versatile running style and is another horse whose losing is usually a function of another horse's performance.

The bottomline at the Breeders' Cup Classic is whether or not there is enough early speed to set it up for a late run. It can be stolen on the front end, and settled by less than a length, possibly a blanket finish including several horses.

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